Global Climate Leaders and Laggards

By Ciara Shannon

This year there has been an escalation in climate chaos – right now bushfires in Australia burn in five different states and 5+ million of hectares have been razed. Tens of thousands of fires across the Amazon destroyed more than 4.6 million acres of irreplaceable rain forest and many indigenous communities lost their land and livelihoods. Hurricane Dorian utterly devastated the Bahamas leaving 80,000 people homeless; drought spread through Africa, and vital farmland in Bangladesh was lost to sea level rise. Climate change is happening now and requires immediate and ambitious climate action.

85% of New Extraction will Come from North America

The Global Gas and Oil Network’s report says that over the next five years, oil and gas companies intend to invest US$ 1.4 trillion in fossil fuel extraction, locking in the release of 148 Gt of CO2. 85% of this new extraction will come from North America – the United States (much of it from the Permian Basin) and Canada. The other countries are Argentina, China, Norway, Australia, Mexico, UK, Brazil and Nigeria. Just 25 companies are responsible for nearly half of the production and these include European oil majors such as Shell, BP, Total and Equinor.

Yet, if we are to have any chance of keeping global average temperature increase to 1.5°C, we must leave the majority (up to 80%) of fossil fuels in the ground. (Source: Climate Tracker Initiative. Unburnable Carbon (2011). We can’t afford to dig or drill up oil and gas from new fields if we’re to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

Source: Fires in Australia, December 2019. Photograph: BBC, Dean Lewins/EPA

Country Climate Leaders and Laggards

Based on some research I did, after discounting about 55 countries (which had limited comparable climate data) from the world’s 195 countries, we looked at climate data for 140 countries and identified top emitting and fossil fuel producing countries by looking at per capita and absolute emissions, oil, coal and gas production and consumption, their reserves, as well as countries with high deforestation rates.

We also considered which countries had signficant carbon sinks and which countries were the most vulnerable to climate change and how ‘ready’ they were. On top of this, we looked at countries international and national climate policy and we then ranked all of this data into various lists of ‘top 20’ and identified which countries came up multiple times as key ‘climate offending’ countries. (see below).

RankC02 per CapitaAbsolute Coal ProductionOil ProductionNatural gas ProductionOil ReservesCoal ReservesNatural gas ReservesDeforestationCarbon Sink
1QatarChinaAustraliaUSAQatarVenezuelaUSARussiaRussiaBrazil
2KuwaitUSAMongoliaRussiaNorwaySaudi ArabiaRussiaIranBrazilColombia
3LuxemburgIndiaAngolaChinaOmanCanadaAustraliaQatarCanadaPNG
4AustraliaRussiaKazakhstanBrazilEquatorial GuineaIranChinaUSAIndonesiaChina
5USAJapanSouth AfricaMexicoRussiaIraqIndiaSaudi ArabiaDRCZambia
6CanadaGermanyUSAKuwaitCanadaKuwaitIndonesiaTurkmenistanMalaysiaPeru
7OmanSouth KoreaPolandNigeriaKuwaitUAEGermanyUAEMadagascarMexico
8PalauIranRussiaQatarNetherlandsRussiaUkraineVenezuelaIvory CoastBolivia
9EstoniaCanadaCzech RepublicNorwayAustraliaLibyaPolandNigeriaAustraliaTanzania
10KazakhstanSaudi ArabiaChinaAngolaUSAUSAKazakhstanChinaAngolaUSA
11RussiaBrazilColombiaKazakhstanMalaysiaNigeriaTurkeyAlgeriaMyanmarEcuador
12South KoreaMexicoIndonesiaColombiaBoliviaKazakhstanSouth AfricaIraqLaosAustralia
13LibyaIndonesiaCanadaIndiaLibyaChinaSerbiaIndonesiaParaguayCanada
14Czech RepublicSouth AfricaMontenegroIndonesiaNew ZealandQatarNew ZealandMozambiqueMozambiquePhilippines
15GermanyUKNew ZealandOmanKazakhstanBrazilBrazilKazakhstanGuineaSouth Africa
16FinlandAustraliaNigeriaUKVenezuelaAlgeriaCanadaEgyptMexicoGuyana
17BelgiumItalyGermanyArgentinaArgentinaAngolaColombiaCanadaFinlandCameroon
18PolandTurkeyGreeceMalaysiaDenmarkEcuadorPakistanAustraliaNigeriaZimbabwe
19ChinaFranceBulgariaEgyptUKMexicoMongoliaUzbekistanPeruPanama
20IrelandPolandIndiaEcuadorEgyptAzerbaijanVietnamKuwaitArgentinaNepal

We looked at various climate data sources to get a clearer picture, but a challenge was getting recent data and comparable metrics for so many countries. As there are different ways to compare countries’ emissions, we looked at both absolute emissions and on a per capita basis. We did not look at historical emissions, or the carbon footprint of consumption, including imported goods. “Absolute emissions” are carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of coal, natural gas, oil and other fuels, including industrial waste and non-renewable municipal waste. Over time, the absolute amount is what affects atmospheric concentrations of GHGs and the global carbon budget.  

The top four GHG emitters, China (27.2%), the United States (14.6%), India (6.8%) and Russia (4.7%) contribute more than half of total global emissions (53.3%), while the bottom 100 countries only account for about 3.5 %. The US is the world’s top producer of oil and has the largest coal reserves, Canada has the third largest oil reserves and third largest deforestation rates. Australia is the top producer of coal, has the third largest coal reserves and Qatar is the top natural gas producer and has the largest C02 per capita. Venezuela has the largest oil reserves and Russia the largest natural gas reserves and largest deforestation rates, followed by Brazil. China has the world’s largest absolute emissions and is the third largest oil producer with the fourth largest coal reserves.

Deforestation, land use change and carbon sinks

Deforestation and land use change is one of the main contributors to climate change producing about 24% of GHGs. Deforestation comes in many forms: wildfire, agricultural land clearance, livestock ranching, and logging for timber etc.

Globally, forests act as carbon sinks and store large amounts of carbon sequestered from the atmosphere, but primary forests, rather than secondary forests (forests regrown after clear-felling of trees) are the best carbon sinks and must be protected against deforestation.

Australia’s annual emissions budget in 2018-19 was 532 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, however the bushfires, which have burnt through more than 5+ million hectares across the country, are estimated to have released two-thirds of this amount – or about 350 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere so far. This is a low estimate as the bushfires are still spreading. (Source: NASA’s Global Fire Emissions Database). Experts warn the forests in Australia may take more than 100 years to absorb what’s been released so far this season.

Before the fires in the Amazon, a study published in the journal Ecology showed that regrowth in the Amazon rainforest is happening slower than previously thought. Even after 60 years of regrowth secondary forests hold just 40% of the carbon held in primary forests left undisturbed by humans.

Avoiding deforestation and improving land and forest management can reduce emissions significantly, but contradictory subsidies, poor land management and vested corporate interests prevent this from happening. To consider which countries have the highest deforestation rates, the only available data for so many countries was for 2014. Recent devastating fires and deforestation in Australia, Amazon and Indonesia are not considered.

RankTop ‘Offending’ Countries Multiple Issues in Top 20 (in bracket the number of)
1CanadaC02 per capita, absolute emissions, oil, coal and natural gas production, oil, coal and natural gas reserves and deforestation (9)
1RussiaC02 per capita, absolute emissions, oil, coal and natural gas production, oil, coal and natural gas reserves and deforestation (9)
2USAC02 per capita, absolute emissions, oil, coal and natural gas production, oil, coal and natural gas reserves (8)
2ChinaC02 per capita, absolute emissions, coal and oil production oil, coal and natural gas reserves and deforestation (8)
3AustraliaC02 per capita, absolute emissions, coal production, natural gas production, coal and natural gas reserves and deforestation (7)
4IndonesiaAbsolute emissions, oil and coalproduction, coal and natural gas reserves and deforestation (6)
4Kazakhstan Coal, natural gas and oil production, oil, coal and natural gas reserves (6)
5QatarC02 per capita, natural gas and oil production, oil and natural gas reserves (5)
5KuwaitC02 per capita, oil and natural gas production, oil and natural gas reserves (5)
6IndiaAbsolute emissions, coal and oil production and coal reserves (4)
6BrazilC02 per capita, oil and coal reserves and deforestation (4)
7VenezuelaNatural gas production, oil and natural gas reserves (3)
7GermanyAbsolute emissions, coal production and coal reserves (3)
7IranAbsolute emissions, oil and natural gas reserves (3)
7South AfricaAbsolute emissions, coal production and coal reserves (3)
7ColombiaOil production, coal production and coal reserves (3)
7ArgentinaOil production, natural gas production and deforestation (3)
7MexicoAbsolute emissions, oil reserves and deforestation (3)
7PolandC02 per capita, coal production and coal reserves (3)
7UKAbsolute emissions, oil and natural gas production (3)
7NigeriaNatural gas and oil reserves and deforestation (3)
7EgyptNatural gas and oil production and natural gas reserves (3)
8AngolaOil reserves and deforestation (2)
8MozambiqueNatural gas reserves and deforestation (2)
8South KoreaC02 per capita and absolute emissions (2)
8OmanNatural gas and oil production (2)
8UAEOil and natural gas reserves (2)
8EcuadorOil production and oil reserves (2)
8NorwayOil and natural gas production (2)

We then looked at which countries appeared in the ‘top 20’ for multiple issues (as above). Given many countries have multiple climate ‘offences’ that all pack a punch, ordering them in the above way is useful when looking at which issues to focus advocacy on for each country. (noting there is detailed data behind every country ranking).

Russia and Canada share the top spot for being ‘worst offenders’ for multiple issues. Russia holds the world’s largest natural gas reserves and the eighth largest crude oil reserves, most of Russia’s production and reserves are found in the Western Siberia basin. Russia is also the biggest exporter in the world of natural gas, contributing more than 40 % of the overall world’s gas export. Plus. Russia has the largest area of forests in the world, with around 12 million km2 of boreal forest, larger than the Amazon rainforest. It is estimated that 20,000 km2 are deforested each year.

In Canada, about 60% of its industrial emissions come from the oil and gas sector and Canadian proven oil reserves are estimated at 171.0 billion barrels. Alberta is Canada’s largest oil and natural gas producer and is home to vast deposits of both resources. According to Canada’s Energy Future report, Canadian oil output will grow by nearly 50% to around seven million barrels per day by 2040, while gas increases by over 30%. This growth is for their export market, as energy use per person is expected to increase by less than 5% by 2040, while the population grows by 20%. Canada’s deforestation rates are high as their forests have been subject to large insect infestations and forest fires.

In SummaryCountries
High Emitters and ProducersArgentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Ecuador, Egypt, Germany, India, Indonesia, Iran, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Poland, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, UAE, UK, USA and Venezuela
High Deforestation CountriesAngola, Australia, Brazil, Canada, DRC, Ivory Coast Madagascar, Mexico, Mozambique, Paraguay and Russia
Need to Protect Their Carbon SinksArgentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Nigeria, Peru, Philippines, PNG, Tanzania, USA and Zambia
These Countries Need More Support on Vulnerability and ReadinessBurkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, Congo, Central African Republic, DRC, Haiti, Madagascar, Mali, Sudan and Zimbabwe
Laggards in Climate Policy (this will change once countries update their NDCs).Australia, Austria, Hungary, Ireland, Malta, Slovenia, Ukraine and USA
Leaders in Climate Policy (this will change once countries update their NDCs).Argentina, Finland, France, Germany, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Portugal, Switzerland and UK
RankMost Vulnerable and Least Ready Countries ( Source: 6 & 7)
1Somalia
2Chad
3Eritrea
4Central African Republic
5DRC
6Sudan
7Niger
8Haiti (SIDS)
9Afghanistan
10Guinea-Bissau (SIDS)
11Burkina Faso
12Burundi
13Liberia
14Madagascar (SIDS)
15Zimbabwe
16Yemen
17Mali
18Congo
19Myanmar
20Ethiopia

The list above comes from the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative – ND-Gain Country Index which uses a common set of indicators to measure countries vulnerability to climate change and their readiness. Most African countries are highly vulnerable to climate change and the least ready for its impacts. Asia is also very vulnerable to climate change and is home to a large majority of the global poor. Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are among the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change such as sea-level rise and an increase in intensity of cyclones etc.

Sources

  1. C02 Per Capita – Per capita is useful as individual countries vary vastly in size and population. Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/en.atm.co2e.pc
  2. Absolute Emissions: Source: http://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/science-and-impacts/science/each-countrys-share-of-co2.html
  3. Oil reserves: Source: http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-world-s-largest-oil-reserves-by-country
  4. Coal reserves: Source:  https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019-coal.pdf
  5. Natural gas reserves: Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_proven_reservesOil, coal and natural gas reserves.
  6. Vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Source: https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/rankings/
  7. Climate Readiness – measures a country’s ability to leverage investments and convert them to adaptation actions. Source: https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/rankings/
  8. Deforestation (Gross loss tree cover) Global Forest Watch. Source: www. gfw2-data.s3.amazonaws.com/country-pages/country_stats/download/global.xlsx
  9. Carbon Sink: Source: https://rightsandresources.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/A-Global-Baseline_RRI_Sept-2018.pdf
  10. Leadership on Climate Change Policy Source: https://www.climate-change-performance-index.org/category-results-2019/climate-policy

The Glare of the Glasgow Gavel

Source: VectorStock

By Ciara Shannon

We all heard the bang of the Paris Agreement gavel – the tears, cheers, the joy and France’s diplomacy played a key role in the success of this historic event. Five years on from the Paris Agreement, the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Glasgow in November 2020 will be a critical milestone for global climate action globally.

It will also be one of the biggest global events ever held here and with people-powered climate movements stronger than ever, the world will be looking to the United Kingdom to lead. The UK must use its diplomatic might to corral countries to commit to reduce green house gas emissions (GHGs) by 50% by 2030 and be net-zero by 2050. Developed countries must commit to the US$100 billion climate finance price tag, so as to match the reality of climate science and the climate emergency.

Source: Global Carbon Project

The stakes are high. If COP26 doesn’t deepen the level of ambition and sort out the finances needed, we have little chance of keeping to 1.5 °C. We must keep to 1.5 °C to avoid the risk of setting off the tipping points or feedback loops within the climate system that, if passed, could send the Earth into spiralling warming and runaway climate change.

We must act fast. According to modelling by the Global Carbon Project, there is only 9% of the 1. 5 °C carbon budget left, which will be gone in roughly ten years at current emissions.

Starting now, the UK must outline an ambitious agenda for COP26 using its diplomatic clout and single out big GHG emitters and fossil fuel producers such as Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Japan, Korea, Nigeria, South Africa and the United States.

The UK is well positioned to build momentum and establish a powerful legacy at COP26. Since 1990, the UK has reduced emissions faster than any other G7 nation, and it was the first advanced economy to legislate a net-zero 2050 target and it has so far achieved a ¬42% cut, marking a big stride in decarbonising its electricity sector and investing heavily in offshore wind. However, the lion’s share of UK’s GHGs come from heat, transport, industrial processes and manufacturing and this where (like for many countries) the largest decarbonisation challenge lies.

As COP hosts, our leadership also rests on ramping up and delivering our own climate policies and programmes. The UK is currently projected to not meet its medium-term climate targets for its fourth (2023-2027) and fifth (2028-2032) carbon budgets. There has been a lack of significant climate policies recently and there is a need to show a commitment to switching transport and industry to renewable energy, significantly upgrading our household heating systems, and increase finance supporting local, corporate and national actions for a just transition. Etcetera.

COP25, Madrid

Underway is COP25 hosted by the Presidency of the Government of Chile in Madrid and the two main negotiating points are working on finalizing the Paris Agreement’s rules including getting agreement on issues such as Article 6 on carbon markets and financing loss and damage. At this COP, there is no formal negotiation scheduled to build political momentum to increase national climate reduction targets. However, most countries are not on target to even meet the modest commitments they made in Paris four years ago, never mind enhance to meet 1.5°C.

According to the UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report (2019), global carbon emissions continued to rise (up by 1.5% per year in the last decade) and from 2020 emissions will need to be cut by 7.6 % per year for the next 10 years to reach the 1.5 °C goal and 2.7 % per year for the 2 °C goal. To match this, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) must increase in ambition by at least fivefold for the 1.5 °C goal and threefold for the 2 °C.

Many of the EU member states have signed up to an EU-wide pledge to be climate neutral by 2050 and Denmark, Sweden, and Finland all aim at carbon neutrality well before 2050. Austria aims for carbon neutrality by 2040 and (significantly) commits to 100% renewables in the electricity sector by 2030. However, Poland (has sought exemption), the Czech Republic and Hungary have been delaying the process on EU wide carbon neutrality. Once there is agreement, the next step is that the EU carbon neutral 2050 target needs to turn into EU law, agreed by both the European Commission and the European Council and the expected date is around June 2020.

Globally, 80 countries or so have indicated their ‘intent’ to enhance their NDC’s by 2020, but they represent just 10.5% of global emissions. Big emitters like Australia, the United States, Canada, Russia, India, China and Brazil, so far have not submitted revised NDC plans. Two useful platforms that track national climate commitments is Climate Watch‘s NDC Tracker and Climate Action Tracker.

Source: WRI

Reducing Both Emissions and Fossil Fuel Production is Vital

Countries must slash both their emissions, and their fossil fuel production and this doesn’t seem to be happening anytime soon. The Production Gap Report (2019), produced by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), highlighted that the fossil fuel production gap is wider than the emissions gap. Countries are planning to produce about 50% more fossil fuels by 2030 for 2 °C and 120% more than is feasible to keep temperatures to 1.5°C. The production gap is the largest for coal, and oil and gas will also exceed carbon budgets.

Source: UN Production Gap Report (2019)

Countries such as France, Costa Rica and New Zealand have committed to banning new oil and gas exploration and extraction and to phase-out existing production. The UK needs to do this too, we continue to extract coal, oil and gas and we need to #KeepInTheGround our 10 to 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent in recoverable reserves and resources, of which a significant portion is gas.

In recent years, the UK oil and gas industry received £176 million more annually in government support than it paid in taxes and in 2016, and we spent the most in Europe on fossil fuel subsidies (£10.5bn), more than we spent on renewable energy (£8.6bn). Reducing subsidies must be a priority in 2020, as well as ensuring the just transition for workers and communities currently dependent on high carbon industries.

The UK also needs to reduce its funding of fossil fuels in developing countries, which according to CAFOD and ODI equalled £4.6 billion or 60% of £7.8 billion between 2010 and 2017. However, this might change given that the World Bank has stopped and the European Investment Bank (EIB) will stop funding new upstream* oil and gas projects. It will be interesting to see if and when the UK’s CDC and other development banks follow.

Eyes to the East

In China, they will soon annouce their ‘Clean, low carbon, secured and highly efficient’ 14th Five-Year Plan for 2021-2025. While China continues to reduce its carbon intensity, increase energy efficiency and has announced that it will reduce coal power production in the north-west of China by at least a quarter – it is still the largest global producer and consumer of coal (= 55% of China’s fuel mix). It also plans to install new coal power capacity equal to the EU’s entire coal capacity.

New coal-fired power plants in China need to be banned and reducing emissions connected to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (spanning across 68 countries = 65% of the world’s population) should be an urgent priority in the lead up to COP26 as many of these investments are skewed towards coal power. For more thinking on this, it’s worth looking at China’s Energy Research Institute, the think-tank of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and their proposal for ‘2C Asia’ an initiative to look at decarbonising energy systems in Asia. See more here on this from China Dialogue.

Climate Finance

An ambitious result in Glasgow also requires that developed countries deliver on the US$100 billion commitment by and annually after 2020. While it’s promising to see 27 countries recently pledge nearly US$9.8 billion over the next four years to the Green Climate Fund – many countries are yet to pay their share. Even then this funding is a drop in the ocean compared with the estimated US$ 1.6 – 3.8 trillion p/a trillion energy system investment needed to avoid the most harmful effects of climate change (IPCC, 2018).

A significant breakthrough could occur if countries cut their fossil fuel subsidies. Just 10-30% of the world’s fossil fuel subsidies, that equal US$775 billion to US$1 trillion per year, could pay for a global transition to clean energy, according to the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) report. Reducing subsidies must be a priority in 2020, as well as ensuring the just transition for workers and communities currently dependent on high carbon industries and living in high risk climate impact countries.

Encouragingly, the UK is considered a global leader on sustainable finance and the Bank of England is the first regulator to start to stress test its financial system against different climate pathways. The UK is doing pioneering work on risk and ESG disclosure – waxing and weaving this into the heart of the financial system and it’s very positive that Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, has been appointed the UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance. See his ‘Fifty Shades of Green’ speech for the IMF here.

Ultimately though, how fast the sustainable financial system can make an impact and channel capital towards decarbonisation, adaptation and loss and damage will be determined by the ambition and implementation of climate policies. This leadership is much needed, given the recent stark warning from scientists Lenton et al in Nature, that the world may already have crossed a series of climate tipping points and the impacts could lead to a cascade of unstoppable events. This is frightening, to say the very least.

* Upstream is an industry term that refers to exploration of oil and natural gas fields, as well as drilling and operating wells to produce oil and natural gas.