Substitution – 101 Issues. Say What?

Notes on Cumbria Councty Council’s (CCC) October 2,2020 Meeting. Application 4/17/9007 – West Cumbria Mining (WCM) – Woodhouse Colliery

By Ciara Shannon

Having sat, sighed and scratched my head through the 7 hour virtual CCC’s Development Control and Regulation Committee meeting on Oct 2, see below some notes and a fair few of my opinions on it. My thinking aims not to be disparaging as I think Cumbria and its Councillors are in a unique position to do something great with its Net Zero Now Future, rather than go backwards – dangerously extracting, selling and exporting coking coal. Coke – the market doesn’t need.

I’ll also add that all of us involved in some way in this project, need to educate ourselves more on the need or not for metallurgical coal (coking coal) and this should be thought about in the context of the future of the steel market, steel’s decarbonising technologies/timelines, green jobs and the huge bounty of opportunities that a Net Zero Cumbria reaps.

But beyond here – how can Cumbria best contribute to a Net Zero or a Climate Positive UK. I’d say it’s seismic and you can read a bit about that in my earlier ‘Peat’ blog. Also look out for (not yet out) the UK Government’s ‘comprehensive’ net-zero strategy which aims to create “new business opportunities and up to two million green jobs by 2030 across all regions of the UK”.

Notes on the October 2 CCC Meeting – Woodhouse Colliery – Approved (Again)

12 committee members voted in favour of granting planning permission to Woodhouse Colliery, three were against including the Chair and the Vice-Chair, two abstained, and one was unable to vote. This is slight progress from last year’s unanimous approval.

While disappointing, it was well chaired virtually by Geoff Cook and Paul Haggin did a good job, overall, in outlining different viewpoints on complex information. There were also public presentations from experts, locals and officials.

As an aside, I was a bit disheartened that there was only two female Councillors and the average age of the committee was older than expected. Councillor Nick Cotton tipped the average age downwards and asked good questions, but didn’t vote against the project which surprised me.

I am not mentioning this in an ageist or in a disrespectful way – far from it – each Councillor will have their own important experience and expertise to share.

But, it struck me that coal mining ‘back in the day’ thinking and a knowledge of those older style business models and jobs prevailed in the committee. This is understandable to an extent, as how many people really know much about alternatives to coking coal and decarbonising steel? It is challenging, difficult and complex.

The question of the need for steel was not in dispute by either side, on the whole. But, I was concerned that Councillors didn’t give more consideration to weighing up the project against new types of green jobs, decarbonising steel business models and the timelines of the scaleability of these greener technologies, processes and industrial innovations. For now and for future generations. (See some info in ‘Charlie’ post)

Perhaps telling, was that very few Councillors mentioned low carbon anything – never mind the vital importance of a low carbon future, nor the exciting opportunity of Cumbria taking the lead in showing the way. Plus, the bonanza bonus of thousands of new green jobs – which are already happening.

So why then did the Council think they had to choose 500 (or so) dirty jobs over no jobs at all?

It is now over to Robert Jenrick, the Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government, to decide whether to call in the decision and make the final decision himself.

This is not the first time this controversial project has gone to his office, nor the first time the Council has approved the project. Likely, not the last.

Those opposing the plan mentioned the loss of ancient woodland, heritage issues, the impacts of climate change to Cumbria (sea-level rise and flooding) (and globally), a dangerous amount of additional greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, over supply of the metallurgical coal market, climate and technology timelines and possible seismic impacts.

Those that approved the project, said that it would bring significant local benefits to Whitehaven, Copeland and Cumbria in jobs and investment, at a critical time.  The project would be a new and large export opportunity for the UK and it will be beneficial to the EU and UK steel sector.

The meeting happened following legal challenges after the Council approved the project in March 2019. The purpose of this meeting was to approve the CCC’s recommendation that the project be approved, while considering planning conditions and the issues to resolve – all 101 of them. With one being to include a legally binding greenhouse gas (GHG) assessment commitment as part of the Section 106 agreement.

This is a first for such a project, alongside a production end date of no later than 2049 to recognise the transition to a net zero carbon economy. (Thought to self: 2049 – are you kidding me?)

One positive outcome of the meeting, was a recognition by the Council that WCM must consider indirect emissions – not just the emissions associated to the operation of the mine (as WCM & AECOM had before stated).

This bit of news that (Scope 2 & 3) indirect emissions will be considered as part of their (legally binding – section 106) GHG assessment was welcome news, as they weren’t being considered previously. This includes considering their customers’ processing and use of the products they sell. * Thanks go to Dr Henry Adams for his work on this.

If WCM goes ahead, the site work will start early next year (before spring 2021), with initial coal production starting ¬18-months from the start of construction. So, let’s say a start date of 2023 to 2049 of 9 million tonnes of C02e each year = that’s equal to a huge 234 million tonnes of CO2e.

By 2049 – does that mean it will be all done and dusted a couple of seconds before midnight to 2050 – the year we need be at Net Zero? But before then – allow me to say it out loud again – that’s 9 million tonnes of C02e every year, multiplied by 26 years or so.

Quite early on in the meeting – emissions, climate timelines and decarbonising technology timelines were discussed by Dr Henry Adams who strongly objected to permission being granted. You can read more details here.

Maggie Mason on behalf of South Lakes Action on Climate Change (SLACC) highlighted why these “end-use” emissions did have to be considered, and why this meant that the proposal was contrary to planning policy and should be refused. See a link here.

Source: GHG Protocol

I waited eagerly to hear about the substitution point which was key to the approval. And hoped for a clear explanation about the Council’s continued insistence that WCM’s coking coal will be a ‘benefit’ as it will substitute those of similar operations in the USA – resulting in CO2 savings from a shorter shipping route. The USA being the UK’s lead supplier of coking coal, Russia then Australia.

But, this point was not discussed in detail by Councillors, instead it was substituted by waffle. That said, it was good to hear Prof Paul Ekins expert advice on this mentioned a few times. With him quoted as saying that the proposed coal mine is in no way a substitution, as it will result in considerable additional global carbon emissions. Plus, an increase in metallurgical coal in the market will reduce the costs of it and thereby the incentive to develop and deploy low-carbon steel technologies.

Councillor Alan McGuckin was the only Councillor to mention the substitution point when he summed up his voting rationale. Saying he supported the steel industry, but voted against the proposal as the coal mine was not needed. He also said if it doesn’t substitute for the import of coking coal from the US – it is “a disaster environmentally”.

Overall, there was a lack of clarity on the level of sulphur (capped it would seem a few minutes before the meeting to 1.6% (as changes had been made to the notes as they said themselves). One Councillor did ask a specific question about how much would the WCM High Volatility A (High Vol A/HVA) coking coal supply/replace for the UK.  The Officers answered that elements of coking coal are complex, and it will depend on the “specification”.

Maggie Mason had mentioned this point in her presentation, and quoted the Officers report that admitted that WCM coal, even as restricted by a planning condition will likely have too much sulphur in it for British Steel to use as HVA coal. Therefore, it will not substitute for 100% of the equivalent coal from the US.

All of this for me leads to further questions about the viability of WCM’s business model. Plus, given WCM’s expected high sulphur content and market sell issues, and that WCM’s coking coal seems not at all to be a substitute for the stuff in the US – what on earth is going on? (I am now really scratching my head).

Finally, towards the end of the meeting it was Mark Kirkbride’s turn to speak. As CEO of WCM he spoke confidently (as you’d expect) and by way of justifying the project, he early on mentioned that the UK was in a deep recession – which was particularly stark in Cumbria. He was asked how certain was he that jobs will go to local people and while this was not answered, he did say that WCM will deliver over 1% of the UK’s trade deficit.

He said the project was ready to start and they were in the process of closing the funding. He stressed payback would be 5 years and not a penny of taxpayers money would be involved.

He also spoke about substitution, but at this point I was swapping my coffee for coke (Diet). In fact, I could have kept exchanging my coke ad infinitum. With a smoke screen in front of it.

To be or not to be a stranded asset? Then (rather indignantly), Mr Kirkbride said the project wouldn’t become a stranded asset as the UK currently imports 5 million tonnes (I need to check this) of metallurgical coal per year, the EU is the second largest market globally and the market for metallurgical coal would remain consistent for at least 30 years or so.

He also said hydrogen was a distant ambition and mentioned briefly carbon capture and storage (CCS). When asked about methane, he said that the underground methane will be piped and bought to the surface and they were looking at a bulk air capture system.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is b5-ldjwcuaawfya.jpg
Image Credit: Tom Toro for the New Yorker, 2013

Tim Farron MP gave a rousing presentation saying amendments made by WCM have been done because of the threat of legal issues and a judicial review. He also said that WCM’s claims that the mine will not make emissions any worse – are obviously false and WCM knows it. He then mentioned that Woodhouse Colliery undermines the Council’s own efforts for a Net Zero Cumbria and that Councillors must consider the strength of Cumbria’s natural resources and its vast renewable energy potential.

Another public representation that got my attention was from Dr Tim Jones who mentioned that the coalfield is heavily faulted. This means there is real potential for subsidence to occur as a result of the “mass removal” and creation of extensive sub-sea void spaces which could generate earthquake effects, which may extend onshore as far as the Sellafield/Moorside sites. Apparently, Sellafield have said they don’t have an objection to the project as there will only will be ‘some’ subsidence. But how much is ‘some’?

A further point of interest – was back in 2015, Cumbria County Council’s Planning Officers gave the go ahead for WCM to carry out “exploratory borehole drilling” onshore and offshore in the St Bees area. Apparently, WCM have already spent £12 million drilling bore holes and they have collected 4000 metres of drill core sample. In the process, WCM hit at least one methane gas pocket, one nautical mile from St Bees.

Councillor Hillary Carrick summed up the meeting well when she said she found aspects of the project misleading and that any project that has 101 issues to resolve – is of concern.

I couldn’t agree more. Many Councillors said themselves that parts of the project were very complicated (and they are) and required specialist expertise in a number of areas (it does). One Councillor even said he wasn’t elected to do global issues but was elected for Cumbria. Another doubted the climate science (sigh), and then mentioned the UK needs its own steel security (a good point). Plus, the Mayor of Copeland quite angrily said that the people who were concerned about the project didn’t live in the area – the people in Copeland support the project.

But do they – has anyone else asked them?

When the Officer was asked if they had double checked the emission figures, the reply was they took a simple view and compared WCM to that of American mines. How is this proper due diligence?

Why hasn’t Cumbria Council got a climate person to help build knowledge internally and externally – as so many other Councils now have? Or perhaps as this is a global issue, why not create a different type of decision making structure for big decisions such as this that includes Councillors, along with a cross-section of experts?

Following the meeting and to quote Jon Owen, Environment Committee Chair, Kendal Town Council. Lib Dem: “500,000 people live in Cumbria. Thousands of them put efforts in to reduce their carbon footprint, by flying & driving less, eating less meat, by recycling, by considering food miles. It feels like all that effort is wasted when 12 councillors can triple the county’s emissions.”

Jon also said that we know from the British Social Attitude survey, that older people, on average, are less concerned about climate change. Only 20% of those aged 65+ are either very or extremely worried about climate change – compared to 32% of those aged 18-34.

Can I strongly suggest that as climate change is an intergenerational and a deeply serious thing – that Charlie, Taylor and Sam from Workington (see ‘Charlie’ post) – talk to their parents/grandparents. And fast. Plus, think hard about Councillors you vote for next May.

Source: British Social Attitudes Survey 35 – Climate Change

Welcome to Whitehaven: Twinned with Papua New Guinea’s Emissions + A Larger Other

But folks hold on to your hat. There’s more.

When I think more about the 9 million tonnes of C02e each year – this is as big as a country emits. In fact, it’s the same as Papua New Guinea emits every year and is equal to 0.03% of the global share of emissions. I also note, that about 87% of WCM’s coking coal will be exported to the EU and 13% of its coal will likely be used for steel making in the UK.

Be they WCM’s own emissions or their customers’ emissions in the EU or UK – it’s a massive number of additional emissions for the UK every year and cumulatively until 2049 to take on. Frankly, the substitution point and the Council justifying the project based on CO2 savings from a shorter shipping route from the USA – is misguided, at the very least.

As the Race to Zero heats up (& it already is – globally, nationally, regionally and locally) and competition intensifies – you can almost see the sign as you enter Whitehaven: “Twinned with Papua New Guinea’s Emissions” – or some such.

Adapted

In addition to this, how much more would WCM’s emissions increase Whitehaven/ Workington etc. already hassubstantial cumulative, historical emissions going back to say the 1840s when the area was a former coal and steel hotspot until the 1980’s.

While methane will be long gone from the atmosphere from that time, unless there is methane leakage from the old mines that did have high concentrations of methane and were “gassy” (many lives were lost because of it) – the CO2 from then will still be in the atmosphere today.

At a guess, historical, cumulative emissions would easily equal a high emitting country. Now add that country’s name next to Papua New Guinea’s..

I don’t know about you, I am not sitting comfortably at all.

(Part of this blog is also on the South Lakes Action on Climate Change (SLACC) website. See here. I am objecting to the WCM in a independent capacity and collaborating with others. Jointly with Duncan Pollard and Associates, we are working on the business case against WCM).

Additional Info

Notes on Scope 3 Value Chain

  • The 9 million CO2e per year number considers indirect end-use emissions, also known as Scope 2 & 3 (indirect) Value Chain emissions as labelled in the GHG Protocol. While approaches to addressing Scope 3 Value Chain emissions are tricky to work out and are evolving across sectors, it is encouarging to see BHP is thinking about this for their metallurgical coal. See BHP’s work on that here.
  • About 87% of WCM’s coking coal will be exported to the EU and 13% of its coal likely used in UK. This means on paper when registering their emissions – WCM’s EU related emissions will go into an “export category” in their ‘end user’ breakdown and will be excluded in their UK total count. However, emissions are still emissions – regardless of the bucket/ country they get counted in.
Source: Mining-journal.com. This image is highlighted only to show how high Scope 3 value chain emissions can become. These are not figures connected to WCM.

Notes on Oct 2 Meeting

  • Here is the agenda and notes for the CCC Oct 2 decision meeting
  • Councillors in favour: 6x Cons: Bowness, English, Hitchin, Markley, Turner, Wilson and 3x Lab= Cassidy, McEwan, Morgan and 2x Lib Dems: Cotton, Gray and 1x Independent: Holliday
  • Against: Cook (LD), McGuckin (Lab), Carrick (Cons) Abstain: Bingham (Cons), M. Wilson (Lab)

Some Press Coverage of the Oct 2 Decision

  • The Council felt they had to choose dirty jobs over no jobs at all – Telegraph (Oct 2)
  • Cumbria coal mine: black out – FT (Oct 2)
  • First new deep coal mine in UK for 30 years gets go ahead – Guardian (Oct 2)
  • UK’s first new deep coal mine in 30 years is likely to be approved – FT (Oct 1)

Very Good Post Meeting Blog – ‘The fog of enactment’.

  • Lessons from the Coalface: What the Cumbria Coal Mine Story Tells Us About UK Climate Strategy by Prof Rebecca Willis on GreenAlliance’s blog (Oct 9)

Poem to Earth: Consider Us Fools

By Isadora

Climate change is here
It should fill you with fear
Catastrophe is about
Don’t ignore the screams and shouts
The planet is confused 
And every one snoozed 

The ticking earth
Cynicism and mirth
Diverse and unsolvable
The speed is uncontrollable
It’ s like a sickness
It’s now a big mess

Like a restless runaway
That pushes us at bay
The earth is changing
Priorities rearranging
Time for us to wake up
Time for a big shake up
 
Recycle your tins
Reduce the stuff in your bins
Reduce your carbon footprint
Walk more drive less( hint hint)
More windmills Less fossil fuels
If we don’t change now consider us fools.

(Isadora wrote this quite young, hatched down during Hurricane Sandy in Philadelphia, USA – Oct 2012. The picture is obv not Philadelphia, but it moodily shows the storm & I love this poem. Happy to post other climate poems, if you want to send on.

The Glare of the Glasgow Gavel

Source: VectorStock

By Ciara Shannon

We all heard the bang of the Paris Agreement gavel – the tears, cheers, the joy and France’s diplomacy played a key role in the success of this historic event. Five years on from the Paris Agreement, the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Glasgow in November 2020 will be a critical milestone for global climate action globally.

It will also be one of the biggest global events ever held here and with people-powered climate movements stronger than ever, the world will be looking to the United Kingdom to lead. The UK must use its diplomatic might to corral countries to commit to reduce green house gas emissions (GHGs) by 50% by 2030 and be net-zero by 2050. Developed countries must commit to the US$100 billion climate finance price tag, so as to match the reality of climate science and the climate emergency.

Source: Global Carbon Project

The stakes are high. If COP26 doesn’t deepen the level of ambition and sort out the finances needed, we have little chance of keeping to 1.5 °C. We must keep to 1.5 °C to avoid the risk of setting off the tipping points or feedback loops within the climate system that, if passed, could send the Earth into spiralling warming and runaway climate change.

We must act fast. According to modelling by the Global Carbon Project, there is only 9% of the 1. 5 °C carbon budget left, which will be gone in roughly ten years at current emissions.

Starting now, the UK must outline an ambitious agenda for COP26 using its diplomatic clout and single out big GHG emitters and fossil fuel producers such as Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Japan, Korea, Nigeria, South Africa and the United States.

The UK is well positioned to build momentum and establish a powerful legacy at COP26. Since 1990, the UK has reduced emissions faster than any other G7 nation, and it was the first advanced economy to legislate a net-zero 2050 target and it has so far achieved a ¬42% cut, marking a big stride in decarbonising its electricity sector and investing heavily in offshore wind. However, the lion’s share of UK’s GHGs come from heat, transport, industrial processes and manufacturing and this where (like for many countries) the largest decarbonisation challenge lies.

As COP hosts, our leadership also rests on ramping up and delivering our own climate policies and programmes. The UK is currently projected to not meet its medium-term climate targets for its fourth (2023-2027) and fifth (2028-2032) carbon budgets. There has been a lack of significant climate policies recently and there is a need to show a commitment to switching transport and industry to renewable energy, significantly upgrading our household heating systems, and increase finance supporting local, corporate and national actions for a just transition. Etcetera.

COP25, Madrid

Underway is COP25 hosted by the Presidency of the Government of Chile in Madrid and the two main negotiating points are working on finalizing the Paris Agreement’s rules including getting agreement on issues such as Article 6 on carbon markets and financing loss and damage. At this COP, there is no formal negotiation scheduled to build political momentum to increase national climate reduction targets. However, most countries are not on target to even meet the modest commitments they made in Paris four years ago, never mind enhance to meet 1.5°C.

According to the UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report (2019), global carbon emissions continued to rise (up by 1.5% per year in the last decade) and from 2020 emissions will need to be cut by 7.6 % per year for the next 10 years to reach the 1.5 °C goal and 2.7 % per year for the 2 °C goal. To match this, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) must increase in ambition by at least fivefold for the 1.5 °C goal and threefold for the 2 °C.

Many of the EU member states have signed up to an EU-wide pledge to be climate neutral by 2050 and Denmark, Sweden, and Finland all aim at carbon neutrality well before 2050. Austria aims for carbon neutrality by 2040 and (significantly) commits to 100% renewables in the electricity sector by 2030. However, Poland (has sought exemption), the Czech Republic and Hungary have been delaying the process on EU wide carbon neutrality. Once there is agreement, the next step is that the EU carbon neutral 2050 target needs to turn into EU law, agreed by both the European Commission and the European Council and the expected date is around June 2020.

Globally, 80 countries or so have indicated their ‘intent’ to enhance their NDC’s by 2020, but they represent just 10.5% of global emissions. Big emitters like Australia, the United States, Canada, Russia, India, China and Brazil, so far have not submitted revised NDC plans. Two useful platforms that track national climate commitments is Climate Watch‘s NDC Tracker and Climate Action Tracker.

Source: WRI

Reducing Both Emissions and Fossil Fuel Production is Vital

Countries must slash both their emissions, and their fossil fuel production and this doesn’t seem to be happening anytime soon. The Production Gap Report (2019), produced by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), highlighted that the fossil fuel production gap is wider than the emissions gap. Countries are planning to produce about 50% more fossil fuels by 2030 for 2 °C and 120% more than is feasible to keep temperatures to 1.5°C. The production gap is the largest for coal, and oil and gas will also exceed carbon budgets.

Source: UN Production Gap Report (2019)

Countries such as France, Costa Rica and New Zealand have committed to banning new oil and gas exploration and extraction and to phase-out existing production. The UK needs to do this too, we continue to extract coal, oil and gas and we need to #KeepInTheGround our 10 to 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent in recoverable reserves and resources, of which a significant portion is gas.

In recent years, the UK oil and gas industry received £176 million more annually in government support than it paid in taxes and in 2016, and we spent the most in Europe on fossil fuel subsidies (£10.5bn), more than we spent on renewable energy (£8.6bn). Reducing subsidies must be a priority in 2020, as well as ensuring the just transition for workers and communities currently dependent on high carbon industries.

The UK also needs to reduce its funding of fossil fuels in developing countries, which according to CAFOD and ODI equalled £4.6 billion or 60% of £7.8 billion between 2010 and 2017. However, this might change given that the World Bank has stopped and the European Investment Bank (EIB) will stop funding new upstream* oil and gas projects. It will be interesting to see if and when the UK’s CDC and other development banks follow.

Eyes to the East

In China, they will soon annouce their ‘Clean, low carbon, secured and highly efficient’ 14th Five-Year Plan for 2021-2025. While China continues to reduce its carbon intensity, increase energy efficiency and has announced that it will reduce coal power production in the north-west of China by at least a quarter – it is still the largest global producer and consumer of coal (= 55% of China’s fuel mix). It also plans to install new coal power capacity equal to the EU’s entire coal capacity.

New coal-fired power plants in China need to be banned and reducing emissions connected to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (spanning across 68 countries = 65% of the world’s population) should be an urgent priority in the lead up to COP26 as many of these investments are skewed towards coal power. For more thinking on this, it’s worth looking at China’s Energy Research Institute, the think-tank of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and their proposal for ‘2C Asia’ an initiative to look at decarbonising energy systems in Asia. See more here on this from China Dialogue.

Climate Finance

An ambitious result in Glasgow also requires that developed countries deliver on the US$100 billion commitment by and annually after 2020. While it’s promising to see 27 countries recently pledge nearly US$9.8 billion over the next four years to the Green Climate Fund – many countries are yet to pay their share. Even then this funding is a drop in the ocean compared with the estimated US$ 1.6 – 3.8 trillion p/a trillion energy system investment needed to avoid the most harmful effects of climate change (IPCC, 2018).

A significant breakthrough could occur if countries cut their fossil fuel subsidies. Just 10-30% of the world’s fossil fuel subsidies, that equal US$775 billion to US$1 trillion per year, could pay for a global transition to clean energy, according to the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) report. Reducing subsidies must be a priority in 2020, as well as ensuring the just transition for workers and communities currently dependent on high carbon industries and living in high risk climate impact countries.

Encouragingly, the UK is considered a global leader on sustainable finance and the Bank of England is the first regulator to start to stress test its financial system against different climate pathways. The UK is doing pioneering work on risk and ESG disclosure – waxing and weaving this into the heart of the financial system and it’s very positive that Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, has been appointed the UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance. See his ‘Fifty Shades of Green’ speech for the IMF here.

Ultimately though, how fast the sustainable financial system can make an impact and channel capital towards decarbonisation, adaptation and loss and damage will be determined by the ambition and implementation of climate policies. This leadership is much needed, given the recent stark warning from scientists Lenton et al in Nature, that the world may already have crossed a series of climate tipping points and the impacts could lead to a cascade of unstoppable events. This is frightening, to say the very least.

* Upstream is an industry term that refers to exploration of oil and natural gas fields, as well as drilling and operating wells to produce oil and natural gas.